Written by Roberta Biros (a.k.a. “Roberta in Mercer”)
Happy New Year to all of my readers. Unfortunately, I did NOT ring in the New Year with much glitz or glamour last night as I’m fighting off a severe case of bronchitis. We managed to stay up until 11pm (which was a big deal for us), but that was the extent of it. I hope you all had a more exciting evening.
With the page officially opened to my new 2009 calendar, I’m prepared to make a few New Years Predictions. Unfortunately, 2009 is looking to be a rather dull political year here in Mercer County. There are only a few races going on this year including County Controller, County Treasurer, and Jury Commissioner. Of the current incumbents, I only know two of them . . . current County Treasurer, Ginny Richardson (R), and Jury Commissioner, Edna Gibson (R).
Ginny Richardson has a LONG history with the County Treasurer position. She has already announced her plans to run for re-election, and she has plans to hit the campaign trail aggressively early in 2009. I am certain that she will win re-election handily (unless she has an opponent!).
I’ve had the pleasure of meeting Edna Gibson, and she seems like a fine woman. I’m not completely familiar with her political career or her plans for 2009, but based on the short time that I’ve spent with her, I am a willing support her if she chooses to seek re-election.
2009 is not the big political year for Mercer County. Instead, most of us are already looking forward to 2010, when the real excitement begins. The big races for Mercer County all happen in 2010. State Senator Bob Robbins (R-50), State Rep. Michele Brooks (R-17), State Rep. Dick Stevenson (R-8), State Rep. Mark Longietti (D-7), and Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3) will all be up for re-election. These are all “big seats” and they are all coming up for grabs at once. Very exciting.
Before I make my predictions for 2010, I’d like to dig a little something out of the archives. Fellow contributor to PAWaterCooler.com, Ben Wren, made some interesting New Years Predictions in December of 2006. You can read his entire blog post at http://pawatercooler.com/?p=335. It is quite interesting reading predictions “after the fact”, so you might find many of his predictions interesting in hind sight. The one prediction that I’d like to discuss was categorized under “People to Watch” where he stated:
People to Watch:
Michele Brooks- Who? She was recently elected to the State House in the 17th district representing parts of Crawford, Mercer and. She is young, smart, and ambitious. Before her election she was Mercer County Commissioner. Why should you care? The answer is 2010. With Senator Bob Robbins(R-50), the Republican Caucus Secretary, likely not to run for re-election in 2010 this seat will become open. Brooks would be one of the only candidates for the job with exposure in Mercer and Crawford and Lawrence Counties. She is good enough and smart enough to make a major difference in both the House where she currently will serve and possibly the Senate where she could serve. It’s never too early to think about the 2010 primaries!
State Senator Bob Robbins (R-50)
I’m curious if Mr. Robbins still intends on running again in 2010. After voting for his own pay raise in 2006, he alienated many loyal followers in his own Party, but he seemed to get away with it and was re-elected that year in a very close race. He then made a goodwill gesture this month when he turned down his cost of living increase (Act 51 COLAs), but rumor has it that he made the recent “give back” of his raise while kicking and screaming. Many fiscal conservatives like myself have some mixed emotions about the re-election of Mr. Robbins. If he runs in 2010, it will be an exciting race to watch. A few things could happen with Bob Robbins.
- He could decide NOT to run . . . but I doubt it. He will have no opposition from Republicans in the primary, but I suspect he will have a tough race against ANY Democrat in the general election. The growing concerns of his constituents will make his race an uphill battle.
- He could run in the primary and then resign before the general election (much like Rod Wilt in 2006). If this happens, Michele Brooks might have an opportunity to step in as the Republican Candidate again (which I would personally find disturbing).
State Representative Michele Brooks (R-17)
As “part two” of Ben Wren’s prediction, we are left to ask “Will the ‘good enough and smart enough’ Michele Brooks eventually make a move towards Bob Robbins’ PA Senate seat?”
In my opinion, Michele Brooks has a good thing going with her seat as the Representative of the 17th District. The people of her District genuinely like her “down home attitude” and her friendly, approachable demeanor. The 17th District is small enough that Ms. Brooks can make personal contact with her constituents (her strong suit), and she can make a real impact for the people of the primarily rural area. If she runs for re-election in her District, I believe she will win handily (and perhaps unopposed). I’m afraid that a move toward Bob Robbins’ Senate seat (through an appointment or through an election) may be a bit too ambitious for Michele Brooks at this point in her career. Bob Robbins’ Senatorial District is much larger and has a much more diverse demographic which may prove a challenge for the freshman Legislator. While I’m certain that Michele Brooks could “handle the job”, I’m less certain that she has the loyal following in Lawrence, Mercer, and Crawford Counties to win or hold the seat through an election. If I were giving advice to Michele Brooks, I’d simply say two words . . . RON KLINK.
For those of you that are not familiar with the Pennsylvania politics reference of Ron Klink, allow me to summarize briefly:
Ron Klink (D) was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1992 where he
served four terms for Pennsylvania’s 4th District. In 2000, Ron Klink decided
NOT to run for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives. Instead, his
“ambition” led him to run for the U.S. Senate seat against then incumbent Rick
Santorum. After the dust settled, Ron Klink had given up his House seat . . .
Ron Klink lost the Senate seat to Santorum . . . and Mr. Klink and his family
may have nearly lost their house after reportedly mortgaging his home to finance
the failed campaign.
Ambition got the best of Ron Klink, and he ended up unemployed. This is an important lesson from which Michele Brooks could learn much.
State Rep. Dick Stevenson (R-8)
In 2010, if Dick Stevenson chooses to run for re-election, I suspect that he will have any easy race. He ran unopposed in 2008, and I see this as a possibility again in 2010.
State Rep. Mark Longietti (D-7)
Mark Longietti has a very comfortable position in the 7th District. He ran unopposed in 2008 in his primarily Democratic district. I see the 7th District to be a very tough spot for any Republican to conquer in the near future. The more urban areas of Sharon and Farrell hold the majority of voters, and the demographic is weighed heavily on the side of the Democrats. I suspect Longietti will have his job as long as he wants it . . . unless a very clever and open-minded Republican comes along. I have one person in mind, but I’m not sure if he is willing to take the chance (that will be a story for another day, I hope).
A more interesting possibility is Mark Longietti taking a shot at Bob Robbins’ State Senate Seat. With his past experience, loyal voters from his District, and help from the Democratic Party, Mark Longietti might have a strong chance against the Republican incumbent.
Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3)
Kathy Dahlkemper won her seat in 2008 from incumbent Phil English. Phil English definitely had his problems, and he lacked the support of his party. Kathy Dahlkemper is going to have her hands full in 2010. While I’m not sure which Republican will make a move for the Congressional Seat, I’m certain that they will come out with guns blazing. Ms. Dahlkemper needs to hit the ground running when she is sworn in this week. She needs to start “making friends and influencing people” on both sides of the aisle quickly. She needs to make some Republican friends in the area if she intends on keeping her seat. Failure to do so may mean a short political career for the “Millionaire Kathy Dahlkemper” (sorry, I couldn’t help myself . . . the reference makes me giggle every time).
So, that’s it. I’ve made my official predictions in writing for the whole world to see. I may end up looking pretty silly in the end, but this is the best I can do with what I have to work with at this time. All of these races will be interesting, and I’ll be entertained to watch from my comfortable position on the sidelines. Besides, we all need to get through 2009 first!
As always, just my opinion.
Mercer County Conservatives 